The Mediterranean Desert

Rising CO₂ levels in the atmosphere are causing a massive disruption of the climate, from raising temperatures to strongly impacting precipitation patterns over the world and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Such massive changes have deep consequences on ecological communities and will drastically change Earth landscapes. One of the region that will see the most visible consequences of Global Warming is the Mediterranean. According to a report by the European Environmental Agency ¹, the main consequences of Global Warming on the Mediterranean area will be: a large increase of temperature extreme and a strong decrease of precipitation and river flows ². This will cause droughts, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, forest fires, reduction of crops yield, increase mortality of livestocks, and a multitude of negative effects on the economy. All together this will cause a major shift in ecosystem and landscapes toward a desertification of the Mediterranean region ³⁴.

Long periods of precipitations deficit in the Mediterranean area over the past 10,000 years have all been linked to past civilisation collapse, yet, none of them was comparable to the climatic changes that awaits the Mediterranean area over the 21st century ^4:1. In the Mediterranean region precipitations are expected to drop by up to 30% annually and up to 60% in the Summer ^1:1, the frequency of drought is projected to increase by up to 15 times ^1:2, the warmest July in the Mediterranean region could be 9°C warmer than today’s warmest July ⁵, the Segre and Minho rivers in Spain will have a Summer flow reduced by 45% on average, and up to 90% for the driest years ^1:3, the Mediterranean Sea will become warmer, more saline and more acidic with an increased risk of toxic algal and bacterial bloom ^1:4. Such intense stress on ecosystems will make the Mediterranean vegetation and wildlife gradually disappear, turning large areas of Southern Spain, Sicilia, Greece, Turkey, Middle East and North Africa into a desert comparable to the Sahara, while areas of Southern France, North Italy, Balkans… will turn into semi-arid landscapes ^4:2.

Cities like Seville, Lisbon, Granada, Palermo, Athens… have thrived for thousands of years in a temperate climate. But if global warming continues at the current pace, these cities will be in the middle of a desert by the end of the century and their economy will collapse ^3:1. To avoid the desertification of the Mediterranean region, Global Warming should stay below 1.5°C ^4:3. At our current rate, the CO₂ emissions require to reach a 1.5°C Warming will be reached by the end of 2027 ⁶. Massive and immediate cuts in our CO₂ emissions are therefore required. However, we’re currently on path to reach 2°C Warming by 2050 and at least 4°C by the end of the century ⁷.

Cutting down our CO₂ emissions and staying below a 1.5°C Global Warming is still possible. The desertification of the Mediterranean area can be avoided. We need to act now.