Hot War

It’s no surprise to anyone that a ‘shrinking pie’ will encourage conflict inside and between countries – including nuclear powers. As extreme weather phenomenons increase, political conflicts will arise over scarce resources and territorial control¹.

The conditions under which many people live will drastically deteriorate, leading to significant instabilities. Many of the regions at the highest risk from climate change are in politically unstable countries that already experience high levels of conflict². Dwindling resources, food shocks, and droughts can all contribute to civil unrest, which in turn increase the chances of major protests, civil war and regime changes. Many conflicts of the last decade, especially in West Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, were influenced by changing climate³⁴.

Regional and internal conflicts have the potential to spread internationally. Political instability will threaten international agreements and the world’s ability to deal with the global threat of climate change⁵. The US Department of Defense has predicted that climate change will heighten global conflicts and considers more than half of their military bases at risk because of it⁶.

Climate change represents a dramatic threat to world peace. Naturally, the potential of increased tension between political powers with nuclear weapons is a cause for alarm. At a time when the world needs to work together to fight climate change, that very same threat may drive nations further apart and endanger us all. How we respond now will determine how peaceful the world will be for future generations.